Preface, this was written after the 2015 Canadian elections:

---

Well, October 19th came and went, and with it a vastly different Parliament in Ottawa, one with a largely red hue. And so, after looking at the respective social media campaigns before the election, let’s take a moment to reflect on how it all happened, and determine whether or not social media had any influence at all.

The Results

For the riding of Notre-Dame de Grace-Westmount (NDG-Westmount), it wasn’t a tremendously close race. The incumbent, Marc Garneau, won with 57.7% of the popular vote. There was an 18,000 vote difference between first and second, where Jim Hughes of the NDP found himself with 21.8% of the vote. Conservative candidate Richard Sagala was third with 14.1% of the vote.

Social Media Results

As detailed in the podcast, the social media involvement rankings followed a very similar pattern to that of the election results. Marc Garneau had a resounding lead on his opponents, and on the rest of the political candidates in Canada. Meanwhile, Sagala had a minimal presence online, and it was reflected in the pools. Hughes, meanwhile, was somewhere in the middle. Now it’s easy to point to this one relation and claim that social media engagement has a 1-to-1 correlation with winning elections, but we know that is not the case.

What It Means?

Well, there are a number of other factors at play here. For one, Garneau has held the position since 2008, and before that he was Canada’s first astronaut. That’s a tough position to unseat at every level. On top of that, we saw an unprecedented Liberal wave roll over the entire country, gaining 150 seats to take a majority government. Voters were voting red no matter who the local candidate was because they wanted Trudeau in office. Not to say that was the case in NDG-Westmount, but it could have definitely impacted certain voters.

The point is, there are many variables at play when it comes to a federal election. Social media has definitely proven itself to be a useful tool in a race such as that, and so I have to imagine, that when it comes time to elect the 43rd Parliament, that the candidates trying to unseat Marc Garneau will have to increase their digital presence if they hope to earn their job in Ottawa.